After VOQUZ has shown stellar top-line growth in the past (2019-‘22 CAGR of 38%), the company reported a weak set of H1, clearly reflecting the deteriorating macro environment.

Despite a 14% yoy increase in order intake, H1 sales only grew by 3% yoy to € 1.9m (eNuW: € 2.5m) following prolonged sales cycles. Moreover, a higher share of consulting orders, which in general have a longer revenue recognition period, weighed on top-line development.

Following the uninspiring sales development, H1 EBITDA turned negative with € -0.5m (vs € 0.1m at H1’22). The main reason for this were rapidly increasing personnel expenses (+93% yoy to € 1.1m) which is due to the incorporation of a subsidiary in Romania as well as increased sales and marketing capacities. Following the intensified marketing efforts (e.g. conferences in US, Australia) other operating expenses also increased by 16% yoy to € 1.2m.

Although the seasonally strong H2 (especially Q4) is seen to show an improved operating performance with a sequential growth acceleration (eNuW: +7.5%) and a slightly positive EBITDA (eNuW: € 0.3m), VOQUZ looks set to report negative FY EBITDA of € 0.2m.

However, the company’s mid-term prospects remain intact, in our view. Especially with regards to the still lagging SAP S/4HANA migration (33% as of Q2’23). As adoption rates are seen to exponentially increase, VOQUZ looks set to be one of the main beneficiaries with its new software solution VisoryQ, which helps clients to set up an efficient ERP strategy. On top of this, promising cross- and up-selling potentials are in the books, which is becomes visibile in the high share of existing customers in order intake. Against this backdrop, we expect dynamic top-line development combined with steadily expanding margins going forward on the back of economies of scale.

In light of the recent weakness as well as the strong underlying mid-term trends combined with the scalability of the capital-light business model, the stock looks undervalued trading at only 1.3x EV/Sales ‘23e.

Reiterate BUY with a reduced PT of € 20.00 (old: € 32.00) based on DCF.