USU will report Q3 figures on 22 November, which are seen to show sequential improvements compared to the previous quarter, especially on the margin side. This comes despite ongoing headwinds in connection with longer sales cycles, particularly in the license business, which led to a weak Q2.

Sales are seen to increase 5.3% qoq to € 33.3m, implying a muted 2.0% yoy, which however comes against a strong comparable base. The continuously strong growth in SaaS (eNuW: +23% yoy to € 4.6m) as well as solidly growing consulting revenues (eNuW: +10% yoy to € 20.2m) look hereby set to only partly compensate for the ongoing decline in license sales (eNuW: -65% yoy to € 1.4m).

On this basis, Q3 EBITDA is expected to come in at € 2.9m (-33% yoy), implying a margin of 8.8% (+2pp qoq). The yoy profitability decline is mainly explained by the combination of an increased cost base, mainly R&D in connection with AI projects, as well as the strong decline in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to consulting and SaaS revenues.

Mind you, declining license sales and hence a short-term margin compression were already included in our estimates in consideration of the company’s mid-term strategy which is to significantly increase the share of SaaS sales to >75% until 2026. While perpetual license sales provide higher initial margins, the SaaS payments are seen to equal the one-time license payments (+ annual maintenance fees) after c. 3 years, thus allowing for a significant margin expansion as hardly any incremental costs are incurred. While 2024e should be a transition year, we expect the switch to SaaS to start paying off in 2025e with an EBITDA margin of +15%.

That said, the company continues to look on track to reach its mid-term targets (until 2026e) of 10% organic sales CAGR, >25% SaaS CAGR and an EBITDA margin in the range of 17-19% thanks to the ongoing high pace of the SaaS transformation. On top of this, the continuous implementation of the “One USU” strategy, which among others aims for leaner Sales & Marketing structures, should further benefit profitability going forward.  

As shares have been down heavily since the company warned in August, valuation appears ever more undemanding, trading at only 17.3x PE ‘24e, a clear discount to the 2-year forward-looking average of 25.1x. BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.