Original-Research: UBM Development AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu UBM Development AG

Unternehmen: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 09.02.2024
Kursziel: 31.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Off to a good start / Muted Q4’23 expected; chg

Yesterday, UBM announced to have received the building permit for the Timber Peak project in Mainz. Once completed, the 12-storey-building will exceed a height of 40 metres and will have c. 9,500 sqm gross floor area. The building will be equipped with heat pumps, heating and cooling panels, EV-charging for up to 40 car parking spaces, and intelligent building automation technology which is recording consumption and energy efficiency data systematically. Hence, users will be able to de facto automatically fulfil the reporting obligations for the EU Taxonomy.

While construction is set to kick off end of February, the project is expected to be completed in Q2‘25e. As the window for forward deals is almost closed at the moment, we do not estimate a revenue contribution before Q3 ‘25e. The proceeds are seen in the range of € 60-65m (eNuW).

Muted Q4e. UBM is expected to publish FY23 prelims in early March (final FY23 figures on April 11th), which look set to come in muted with sales of € 87.9m (eNuW; eCons: € 97.6m) and an EBT of € -23.6m (eNuW; eCons: € -21.4m). Mind you, that UBM did not execute major sales in 2023 given the standstill on the real estate transaction market. Hence, sales were mainly stemming from smaller disposals as well construction progress on projects already sold (POC). Importantly, our FY ‘23e EBT estimate is still subject to a certain degree of uncertainty which is due to the outcome of the YE impairment test of the standing assets portfolio.

Macro headwinds are starting to ease. After six quarters of decreasing transaction volumes, we observed first sequential improvements in Q3 (+11% qoq) that continued in Q4 (+10% qoq) in Germany’s Top-7. Paired with declining financing rates (10y EUR swap rate is -81bps since 10/23) this indicates that the trough has been reached. Yet, a slow but steady recovery appears more likely than a rapid upswing, in our view. For UBM, this could offer the opportunity to sell the Timber Pioneer, which would generate proceeds of € 150m (eNuW; 75% UBM share). However, amid the still high uncertainty, we factor only a 50% likelihood of this happening and leading to our estimate of € 176m sales in FY24e (eCons: € 167m) and an EBT of € 18.3m (eCons: € 24.6m).

Given the compelling mid-term prospects as well as easing macros, the stock remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of € 31.00 based on DDM.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28853.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.