Topic: Rosenbauer released its Q2 numbers last Friday with sales and EBIT above our estimates. Further, Robau Beteiligungsverwaltung intends to buy additional shares next to the capital increase to achieve a controlling stake of 50.1% (company news August 5^th).

Q2 sales increased 15% yoy to € 309m (eNuW: € 297m), driven by price increases and improved supply chains. Price increases were a major driver of revenue growth and should continue to do so in the coming quarters as the average price in the order intake in H1’24 increased over 12% (as stated in the CC). EBIT came in at € 14.1m (eNuW: € 11.5m), a 151% increase yoy and with a substantial margin improvement of 2.5pp yoy to 4.6% despite negative one-time effects of € 1.2m in Q2. These one-offs related to the departure of an Executive Board member and the implementation of the banking agreement should come down in H2’24 to c. € 1m (as stated in the CC).

Order intake continued to be strong and came in at € 382m, 2.8% higher than last year, leading to another record high in order backlog of € 2.02bn (+20% yoy). As a result of the strong demand and the challenging supply chain situation in recent years, the order backlog was already at an elevated level. Rosenbauer intends now to reduce the book-to-bill ratio to a level of 1x (1.24x in Q2’24) to decrease lead times and with that the implied risk in the order book of increases on the cost side like in FY21 & FY22.

Capital increase: Robau intends to buy additional shares next to the capital increase to achieve a controlling stake of 50.1%. Regulatory approvals for the 50% capital increase and execution are expected to be obtained in Q4’24. Following approval of the takeover, it is planned to appoint Stefan Pierer and Mark Mateschitz (among others), the controlling stakeholder of Robau, as new members of the Supervisory Board.

FY guidance confirmed. Management confirmed its FY guidance of € 1.2bn in sales and an EBIT margin of 5% under the assumption that supply chains remain stable. Taking the already strong H1’24, the well filled order backlog as well as further tailwind from price increases into account, the guidance looks plausible in our view (eNuW: Sales € 1.22bn; EBIT margin 5.1%).  

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 50.00 PT based on DCF.