Topic: Rosenbauer will release its half year report on August 9^th. We expect the positive trend in top- and bottom-line in the second quarter to continue after a solid Q1.

Revenues are seen increasing 11% yoy to € 297m (eNuW) driven by (1) further improvement in the supply chain, and (2) substantial price increases, which are successively reflected in sales. This should also lead to a 1.8pp increase in EBIT margin up to 3.9% (eNuW) and an EBIT of € 11.5m (+104% yoy). We expect this positive trend to continue for the remainder of FY24e and thus further improvements in profitability after the transition year FY23 (eNuW EBIT margin FY24e: 4.7%; FY23: 3.5%; FY22: -1.1%).

We expect price increases to be responsible for c. 8% of sales increase in the second quarter. Once Rosenbauer lifts its vehicle prices, it takes usually 6-12 months to be reflected in the order intake. Hence, the price increases in FY23 are now cooked into the order book, which had at the end of Q1 a 20% higher average price per firetruck than in the previous year. As a result, price increases should be the major contributor to sales growth in the coming quarters, even if we don’t expect further price increases in the near term.

In addition to price increases, further growth should be supported by a strong demand that shows up in solid order intake numbers (FY23: € 1.45bn; +18% yoy) and is driven by structural trends such as climate change and population ageing.  

Positive cross read: Rosenbauer’s largest competitor Pierce which belongs to the American conglomerate Oshkosh, released on Wednesday evening its Q2 numbers. Revenues within the “Fire apparatus” segment came in at $ 355m, a 20% increase yoy thanks to a restored supply chain as well as price increases. Order intake in “Vocational”, which comprehends in addition to “Fire apparatus”, vehicles for refuse and recycling collection, continued to be strong and increased 5.4% yoy (book-to-bill 1.01). Operating income in Vocational came in at $ 107m (+ 76% yoy) with a solid margin increase of 2.3pp yoy. The positive development of Oshkosh Pierce gives us additional confidence in the continuation of Rosenbauer’s operating turnaround.    

We reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 50.00 PT based on DCF.