Rosenbauer released

(sales ~ € 1bn, - 1% EBIT margin) but below our estimates. Margins were impacted by recurrent and intermittent material shortages, the inability to pass on price inflation and two one-off costs from - 1) restructuring measures and 2) Interschutz tradeshow. Rosenbauer guides for a 3% EBIT margin and 'over € 1bn sales' in 2023.

Preliminary Q4 sales grew slightly by 0.4% yoy to € 321m, coming in below our estimates of € 353m. This should be explained by slightly worse than expected material shortages leading to compromised deliveries. FY 2022 sales came in flat yoy at € 972m (eNuW old: € 1004m).

While preliminary Q4 EBIT decreased by 25% yoy to € 20m (in line with eNuW), this was mainly driven by one-off cost of around € 5.6m (eNuW) related to restructuring measures and the industry's leading tradeshow Interschutz. Importantly, the implied margin of 6.2% underpinns the our margin growth expectations once sales increases. FY 2022 EBIT came in as expected at € -10m.

Preliminary Q4 EBT decreased by 52% yoy to € 9.2m, mainly due to higher financing costs. FY EBIT decreased significantly from € 28.9m to € -28.6m as not only higher financing costs but also the deconsolidation of the joint venture in Russia came in as a burden.

Record order backlog due to unbroken demand

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For FY 2022, Rosenbauer reported an all-time-high order intake of € 1.23bn, implying a Q4 with € 404m (+42% yoy, 1.3x implied book-to-bill ratio). Importantly, orders increased across all five geographic regions and the PFP segment, underpinning excellent demand for Rosenbauer’s products. As a result, the order backlog grew to a new reord of € 1.47bn

FY 2023 guidance leaves room for outperformance. Rosenbauer guides for sales of ‘over € 1bn' (eNuW: € 1.08bn). Taking heed of easing supply chains and the current record order backlog, Rosenbauer looks well positioned to reach our sales estimates, which imply roughly 11% yoy growth.

However, we are cautious regarding the company's 2023 EBIT margin guidance of 3% (eNuW: 2%) since higher supplier prices would be passed on to the customers only after H1 2023.

We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a PT of € 53, based on DCF.