Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International AG

Company Name: Rosenbauer International AG ISIN: AT0000922554

Reason for the research:
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 08.04.2024
Target price: EUR 50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Solid FY23 figures // successful operating turnaround; chg. est.

Topic: Rosenbauer reported solid FY23 figures with top-line slightly below and EBIT-margin in line with guidance. The strong demand is unbroken with a record high order intake and backlog.

FY23 sales came in at € 1.06bn, slightly below the management target of € 1.1bn and up 9.5% yoy, despite a reduction in the amount of fire trucks delivered, due to an average price increase of 12% per fire truck. EBIT increased to € 37.5m from € -10.6m in FY22, backed by further stabilization of supply chains and substantial price increases. Hence the EBIT margin increased to 3.5% (+4.6pp yoy), hitting the guidance of 3.5% EBIT margin.

Going forward, profitability should increase even further in FY24e and FY25e, approaching a more normalized EBIT margin of 5.0% in FY25e (eNuW FY24e: 4.6%). Several drivers are supporting this development. (1) The price increases are not yet fully included in the P&L as the order book still contains older orders not reflecting the full increase due to the long lead times. We expect the average price per fire truck to increase c. 10% in FY24e (eNuW). (2) An increasing share of the high margin electric vehicle business, which accounts for c. 2% of total vehicle sales in FY23 (eNuW). However, the company aims for a 50% share by 2030e. (3) Less supply chain disruptions. Chassis lead times and the reliability of delivery times at OEMs have been improving during FY23 and should continue in FY24e.

Order intake continued to be strong during FY23 thanks to structural growth drivers. FY23 order intake came in at € 1.45bn (+18% yoy), leading to a record-high order backlog of € 1.79bn. Growth drivers like global warming for instance causes a severe rise in natural disasters such as wildfires, storms, and floods which elevates the demand for firefighting equipment and trucks.

Successful refinancing: Rosenbauer announced a refinancing agreement with all major financing partners, which runs until November 3 rd, 2025 (company news: March 22nd). The new covenants stipulate an equity ratio of at least 20% as well as a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 5 by the end of FY24e. Rosenbauer has no further intention to place a hybrid bond but aims for a capital increase of 3.4m new
shares (50% increase) during FY24e.

As the equity ratio issue should be resolved soon, investors should re-focus on the promising mid-term
prospects. We reiterate our BUY rating with a new PT of € 50.00 (old: € 54.00) on DCF.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29329.pdf
For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
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