q.beyond's Q1 figures, which will be released on May 13^th, are seen to provide investors with confidence regarding the company’s outlook. While top-line growth is expected to come in rather muted, the imposed efficiency measures should already become visible on the bottom-line.

Q1 sales look set to increase by 2% yoy to € 47.5m (eNuW). Compared to the previous year, q.beyond will report under a new segmentation, comprising the two segments Managed Services (2023: € 129m sales) and Consulting (€ 60.3m). While overall sales growth is seen to remain muted throughout the year, we expect the company to also benefit from the general acceleration of the SAP S/4HANA transformation. Just recently, the company announced to have completed another conversion project with regional newspaper Neue Westfälische. Mind you, SAP ERP customers are getting more and more under pressure regarding the transformation, as SAP will fade out mainstream maintenance for the old ECC by the end of 2027.

EBITDA in Q1 is seen to improve strongly to € 1.4m (eNuW), up from € -1.3m in Q1 ’23. Main drivers for the improved profitability should be an increased near- and off-shoring ratio, which management is aiming to lift from 11% in 2023 to 20% by 2025. This alone should allow for a gross margin improvement of c. 2pp (eNuW). Moreover, we expect an increased focus on the consulting and development business, where gross margins of >20% should be well achievable driven by increased daily rates.

With this, q.beyond should be on track to achieve its full year guidance. While the sales outlook looks conservative with implied 3.0% yoy growth at mid-point (eNuW: 3.1% yoy) the company looks set to achieve at least the lower end of the EBITDA guidance of € 8-10m (eNuW: € 8.2m) as we expect gradual profitability improvements driven by the aforementioned effects throughout the year.  

Besides this, inorganic growth might become a factor towards YE, as implied by CEO Rixen in the call for the FY prelims. In fact, with more than € 30m net cash the company looks well equipped to tap the M&A market again. Here, one possibility could be to partner up with a company from a respective industry in order to access new verticals, comparably to logineer.

q.beyond remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of € 1.00 based on DCF.