Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name:	MLP SE
ISIN:	DE0006569908
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	Buy
from:	15.11.2024
Target price:	EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Henry Wendisch

Q3 in line, guidance at top end or above achievable

Q3 sales increased by 19% yoy to € 245m (eNuW: € 242m; 9M: € 746m, +12% yoy), driven by a € 17m sales effect of performance fees (vs. Q3’23: € 0.1m) but also a solid underlying development (sales ex performance +11% yoy). The competence field Wealth drove sales by 36% yoy to € 140m (eNuW: € 128m; € 123m sales ex performance fees, up 19% yoy), whereas Life & Health sales also increased by 2% yoy to € 68m (eNuW: € 70m) followed by P&C sales of € 35m, up 2% yoy (eNuW: € 35m). Noteworthy, the RE business saw a two-faced development, where RE brokerage rose by 191% yoy and 17% qoq to € 10m (eNuW: € 8m) but RE development remained nonexistent at € 0m sales (eNuW: € 1m).

EBIT expanded sharply by 128% yoy to € 17.8m (eNuW: € 18.2m), benefiting from a € 11m performance fee EBIT contribution (eNuW; c. 65% incremental margin). On the other hand, underlying profitability (EBIT ex perf. fee effect) decreased by 13% yoy due to higher OPEX (+15% yoy).

Guidance confirmed: FY’24 guidance (EBIT: € 85-95m) confirmed: Based on a € 66m EBIT per 9M, the guidance implies a Q4 EBIT in the range of € 19-29m (eNuW: € 28m, not including significant performance fees). This also compares well to previous periods’ EBIT of € 23m (Q4'22, no perf. fees) and € 25m (Q4'23, no perf. fees), which were both burdened by goodwill impairments in the RE segment (€ 3m in Q4'22; € 4m in Q4'23). Consequently, we are positioned at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: € 95m). Moreover, should capital markets continue to perform well until Y/E'24e, performance fees could be in the cards and the guidance could be overachieved. For next year, MLP's midterm targets (EBIT € 100-110m; eNuW: € 102m) will become the FY'25e guidance and new mid-term targets are to be published with FY'24 results in March '25.

Dividend increase after 3 years likely: Based on MLP's targeted pay-out ratio of 50-70% (eNuW: 60%) and EPS estimate of € 0.64, the FY'24e dividend should amount to € 0.36 per share, implying a 20% yoy increase and a current yield of 6%. Mind you, that the dividend is tax free according to § 27 KStG.

All in all, MLP remains fully on track to achieve this and next year's targets this year and should continue to show improvements going forward thanks to its well diversified business model with a large share of recurring revenues. Therefore, we keep MLP in our NuWays' Alpha List and reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 12.00, based on FCFY'24e.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31331.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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