Topic: LAIQON recently released mixed final Q4 results. Moreover, the outlook of performance fees for FY24e, poses LAIQON for another year of solid top-line growth and profitability improvements.

Final results in line: LAIQON released sales and EBITDA prelims in February and both final figures did not deviate. What's new is the net income, which came in slightlyworse than expected at -12.8m (eNuW: € -10.8m) due to (1) € 7.3m negative one-off effects (i.e., € 1.8m non-cash revaluations of limited partners in LAIC and € 5.5m interest expenses for purchase price allocations), lowering the financial result to € -8.9m (eNuW: € -1.5m) and (2) better than expected tax expense of € -7.1m (eNuW: € -2m).

AuM growth on track: At end of Q1'24, LAIQON reported € 6.4bn AuMs on group level, an increase of € 300m vs. Y/E'23 (€ 6.1bn). While the split between net capital inflow and valuation gains is indisclosed, we estimate c. € 150m to be performance related and the remaining € 150m to stem from capital inflows across the three segments. For Y/E'24e, we estimate AuMs to stand at € 7bn (+14% yoy), meaning that € 600m (€ 200m per quarter) are needed to reach our estimate.

Token placement started: In order to secure further outside growth financing and allow for an independent valuation of LAIQON's subgroup LAIC, the placement of the "LAIC-Token 24" has been started in March. This should lead to proceeds of up to € 6.8m for LAIQON and should value the LAIC subgroup at € 65m, of which LAIQON should hold 80.8% post transaction.

Further improvements for FY'24e: Based on our 14% yoy AuM growth estimate, we expect sales to develop accordingly and increase to € 34.4m (+12% yoy). This should in return lead to an improved bottom-line thanks to the high fix-cost base of LAIQON's business model. We expect EBITDA to improve by 2.5m from € -4.7 in FY'23 to € -2.2m in FY'24e, implying an incremental EBITDA margin of 67%. Further upside could stem from performance fees (not included in our estimates) thanks to capital markets currently developing in LAIQON's favour. For FY'25e, we expect a positive EBITDA of € 3.4m thanks to first full-year effects of the Union Investment cooperation but also thanks to organic growth and thus operating leverage at the other segments.

In our view, the current valuation does not reflect LAIQON's potential. Thus, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 10.00, based on DFC. - Analyst change -