Topic: While INDUS should experience some margin pressure in 2024e, the EBIT margin is still seen to come in at 8.0%, which is the highest operating margin since 2017. With an appealing dividend yield of 5.5% (eNuW) and an attractive valuation of only 4.6x EV/EBITDA, the stock remains a buy.

Normalizing margins: In FY23, INDUS benefited from lower material prices, especially in the Materials segment, which is seen to lead to a FY23e EBIT margin of 8.6%. On group level, the material cost ratio declined by 1.6pp to 46.8%. However, this positive price effect should revert in FY24e, as customers are starting to renegotiate in light of the deflating price levels. In addition, wage inflation remains an issue for FY24e. After the personnel expense ratio rose by 1.1pp yoy to 28.5% at FY23e, further wage increases are in the books as unions are increasing the pressure. Hence, we expect the EBIT margin in FY24e to decrease by 0.3pp (eNuW FY23: 8.3%), which is still the highest margin since 2017.   

Supply-chain issues solved: After the start of the Covid19 pandemic, global supply-chains were significantly dislocated, jeopardizing normal operations. This also affected the portfolio companies of INDUS during the previous fiscal years. However, at the end of FY23, supply-chain issues were largely solved and not a single portfolio company was materially affected. 

Portfolio realignment completed: As part of its ‘PARKOUR’ efficiency program, INDUS decided to discontinue the majority of its highly loss-making automotive-related business. While SMA filed for insolvency in Oct.’22, management sold SCHÄFER economically effective on July 31, 2023, and SELZER on August 31, 2023. SELZER alone is seen to rake up a € 22m loss while generating € 65m in sales during FY23e.

Appealing dividend yield: Caused by the weak performance of the automotive-related companies SELZER and SCHÄFER, dividends for the last two years came in rather low compared to previous years. Due to the divestment of the automotive business and a successful operating performance in FY23, we expect a dividend of € 1.2 (eNuW) per share for the recent fiscal year (FY22: € 0.8). Based on yesterday’s closing price, this would lead to an appealing dividend yield of 5.5% (FY22: 3.6%).

INDUS remains attractively priced trading at only 4.6x EV/EBITDA 2023e, which is 34% below its historical average. We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of € 34 based on FCFY 2024e.