Topic: Yesterday, FWAG released solid January traffic results that showed a seasonal shift in passenger mix, which should revert back to its mean. In detail:

FWAG started well into the year with solid January passenger growth of 4.8% yoy to 2.44m pax (vs. eNuW: 2.39m). Here, VIE grew by 3.4% yoy to 1.89m pax (78% of passengers), whereas MLA and KSC continued with strong momentum of 9% yoy and 22% yoy growth (22% of passengers).

Passenger mix shift towards local to revert back. Although VIE passengers grew by 3.4% yoy, the mix shifted notably towards local passengers (82% of pax vs. 80% in Jan'24; + 6% yoy) and the share of important transfer passengers has declined to 18% of pax (vs. 20% in Jan'24; -7.2% yoy). The combination of strong growth in long-haul destinations such as Far East (+38% yoy), North America (+11% yoy) and Africa (+22% yoy), which usually have a higher transfer share, while the overall seat-load-factor is seasonally down (passengers per movement: -1% yoy) at the same time, might imply a seasonally weak seat-load-factor in short-haul destinations. We expect this effect to revert back during the course of the year (eNuW: transfer share of 21% in FY'25e), as utilization rates are expected to rise again during summer. Mind you, transfer passengers are very important for hubs like VIE, as they usually spend more on retail and restaurants than local passengers and contribute twice in terms of passenger fees.

Passenger momentum to decrease: Going forward, we expect the strong momentum seen until 2024, to slow down in FY'25e,  as last years passenger records created a tough comparable base. All in all, we expect passenger growth rates to decrease to low single digits for the next months, with an overall growth of 2.4% yoy in FY'25e. - see p. 2 for details

Moreover, FWAG will report FY'24 figures on 3rd March 2025, which we expect to come in a strong with € 1,038m in sales (+11% yoy) and an EBITDA of € 429m (+9% yoy). Looking into this year, the company released a FY'25e guidance with sales of c. € 1.08bn (eNuW: € 1.08bn, +4% yoy) and an EBITDA of c. € 440m (eNuW: € 439m, +2% yoy), under the assumption of c. 42m passengers on group level (eNuW: 42.4m).

Against this backdrop, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchagend PT of € 60.00, based on DCF.