FWAG releases Q3 results on 14th November, which should mark not only new top- and bottom-line records, but should also show an increase in net liquidty thanks to solid cash generation despite the current CAPEX cycle.

Sales should come in strong at € 306m, +13% yoy, eCons: € 305m (9M: € 794m, +14% yoy) thanks to vivid passenger volumes (Q3: +8% yoy; 9M: +9% yoy) coupled with higher airport charges (+9.7% yoy as of Jan. 2024). Mind you, Q3 is seasonally the most important quarter, accounting for c. 30% of FY revenues and c. 38% of FY EBITDA (both eNuW).

EBITDA should increase by 3% yoy to € 160m (eCons: € 165m; 9M: € 365m)  but with an EBITDA margin of 52% below last year (-5pp yoy) due to higher expected OPEX of € 146m (+23% yoy). The OPEX rise should mainly be driven by an increase in personell expenses (eNuW: € 101m, +28% yoy), as an effect of a higher headcount (eNuW: +8% yoy) and the rise in collective bargaining agreements (+ 7% wage increase) and a higher rate of overtime hours during the busy season. On an absolute level however, EBITDA should thus mark a new record and it shows that the company currently operates well within a healthy margin corridor of 40-45% on a FY basis (eNuW: 41% for FY'24e).

FCF is seen at € 42m (eNuW; 9Me: € 140m) composed of a stellar CFO of € 117m (eNuW; 9Me: € 295m) and CAPEX of around € 75m (+135% yoy; 9Me: € 155m; eNuW) driven by the current southern expansion of Terminal 3. Consequently, we expect net liquidity to rise further and amount to € 391m by 9M'24e. To remind you, the cash build-up should continue until a final decision on the 3rd runway has been made (see update from 9th October 2024), which we regard as a pivotal decision for FWAG's future.

Moreover, FWAG publishes Oct'24 traffic results on 14thNovember, where we expect a continuation of strong demand meeting rising supply. Thus, we expect 3.8m passengers on group level (+6% yoy; 105% of 2019 levels).

Albeit the company continues to operate well, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation, as we regard the stock as fairly valued, which only shows a mere 16% upside to our PT of € 61.00 (based on DCF).