Topic: On Tueday, 20th Aug. 2024, FWAG will release Q2 results, which we expect to come in strong and mark new records, showing a strong demand for air travel in 2024 thus far.

Sales growth driven by price and pax inrease: Based on a rising demand for air travel (Q2 group passengers: +8% yoy) coupled with the statutory increase in airport charges (c. 40% of sales) of up to 9.7% yoy as of 1st Jan. 2024, we consequently expect group sales to grow by 10.4% yoy to € 273m (eCons: € 277m). In detail, we expect the segment "Airport" to grow sales by 14% yoy driven by the effects mentioned above, followed by "Malta" (eNuW: +12% yoy to € 39m) driven by Q2 solid passenger growth in Malta of  14% yoy  and  "Retail and Properties" (eNuW: € 52m, + 9% yoy) which should have capitalized on Vienna's passenger growth of 6% yoy in Q2. - see p. 2 for details

EBITDA expansion to new records: Due to FWAG's business model with relatively low operating leverage, we an expect an increase in OPEX (eNuW: + 8% yoy) largely in line with sales growth. Here, the largest cost item should be personnel expenses (eNuW: + 12% yoy to € 103m) driven by a seasonal increase of employees (eNuW: +6%) as well as wage inflation (eNuW: +6%), but also material expenses (eNuW: +12% yoy to 12.6m)  like energy, materials and third-party services. Consequently, Q2 EBITDA should grow proportionately to sales by 13% yoy to € 125m (eCons: € 124m), which should mark another Q2 record. Here, the segments "Airport" (eNuW: € 60m), "Retail and Properties" (eNuW: € 29m) and "Malta" (eNuW: € 27m) should be the main EBITDA drivers.  - see p. 2 for details

D&A higher due to CAPEX cycle: Following last year's start of the terminal 3 southern expansion, we expect a slight rise in D&A by 9% to € 36m. Consequently, EBIT is seen at € 89m, +14% yoy.

Upbeat cash generation: Despite elevated CAPEX (eNuW: € 68m in Q2), FCF should remain strong at € 44m for Q2 (i.e., € 75m in H1; 37% FCF/EBITDA), according to our estimates. This highlights FWAG's strong ability to generate cash even after CAPEX and dividends (€ 111m; paid in Q2). Thus, we expect the net liquidity to come in at € 353m (vs. € 362m per Y/E'23).

In sum, FWAG's remains an attractive stock to HOLD on, as its monopolistic nature with continuous cash flows allows for steady and slightly growing dividends going forward. But with only 14% upside to our PT of € 59.00 (based on DCF), we do not expect substantial share price reactions in the near-term.