Yesterday, EVDI reported final FY22 figures in line with expectations and guidance:

• Sales of € 5.2m were above previous year's figures (19% yoy), but below our estimates of € 5.8m and below the guidance range of € 5.5-6.0m. The lower number of projects (18 vs 20 in FY21) is overcompensated by higher average volumes per project (€ 3.1m vs € 2.8m in FY21) and higher margins per project (9% vs 8% in FY21). Mind you that c. 0.5m (eNuW) of other operating income were also generated with usual operations. By adding this to the topline, the guidance would have been reached.
• EBITDA came in at € -3.4m (vs € 0m in FY21), better than we had expected (eNuW: € -3.8m), thanks to lower marketing and material expenses and higher other operating income.

Overall, EVDI published a solid set of numbers in a challenging market environment that was characterized by 1) inflation and rising interest rates which weight heavy on the whole real-estate industry and 2) the uncertainties stemming from the war in Ukraine.

Looking into 2023, management is seeing an ongoing high demand for real-estate projects on the investors side that was obviously hardly effected by the first insolvency of a project developer end of last year, as well as continuously high demand for financing on the project developer side, fueled by more restricted lending of banks. Still, the overall market is as challenging as in 2022, especially for project developer. In order to protect its customer on the investors side, we expect EVDI to act more cautious when it comes to project selection. Consequently, the number of projects and financed volumes are seen to remain rather stable as well as a slight decline in margins. We hence reduced our sales estimates from € 7.8m to € 4.7m for FY23e.

Beyond 2023, the expected growth (now from a lower level) should mainly come from a regional expansion to other European countries supported by the European Crowdfunding Service Provider Regulation (ECSPR), further new product features and the overall strong market growth. Thanks to the scalable platform business model, EBIT margin is seen north of 20% in the mid- to long-term (eNuW: FY´27e), which is in line with management long-term vision (20% EBIT-margin).

Down to HOLD with an reduced PT of € 6.00 based on DCF.