EVDI reiterated its FY2022 sales guidance of € 5.5-6.0m (32% yoy growth at mid-point), which is fully in line with our estimates of € 5.8m (eNuW). The guidance is implying H2 topline growth of 40% at mid-point vs H1, resulting in € 3.4m (29% yoy; vs. eNuW: € 3.4m). The key drivers for the strong operating development in such a challenging macroeconomic environment are an increased number of projects (eNuW: 9 in H2 vs 7 in H1), relatively stable average project volumes (eNuW: € 3.3m in H2 vs € 3.6m in H1) and increased average sales per project (eNuW: € 0.37m in H2 vs € 0.34m in H1).

The company’s FY 2022 EBIT is expected to come in at around € -3.8m (eNuW), burdened by one-off costs for the IPO (eNuW: € 2.5m), which were partly offset by cost-cutting measures (reduced marketing, service provider and third-party budgets as well as a slower personnel ramp-up).

Underpinned by EVDI’s resilience during the currently challenging market environment, the long-term investment case looks fully intact: The “Engel & Völkers” network is helping to source real estate developers and projects and the brand with its outstanding brand awareness is helping to win new retail investors. That, paired with fully digitalized processes and a best-in-class risk management, makes EVDI the quality leader (c. € 190m financing volume, 0 defaults) and go-to marketplace in the German digital real estate investing industry.

Going forward, growth should come from prospective regional expansion to other European countries, new product features and the ongoing market penetration in a strongly growing market. Additional tailwinds are seen to come from the ESCP (European Crowdfunding Service Providers) license, which is expected to be granted by the Bafin during Q1/Q2 2023. Receiving the license would make it significantly easier for EVDI to offer its services across the EU with a single authority.

On the back of this, management expects mid-double digit topline growth in the coming years, which is in line with our estimates: We expect € 8.2m sales (+42% yoy) for FY2023e and € 11.6m (+41% yoy) for FY 2024e. Operational break-even should be reached in Q2/Q3 2023e. Thanks to the scalable platform business model, EBIT margins north of 20% should be achievablein the mid- to long-term (eNuW: FY´25E), which is in line with management's vision.

BUY with an unchanged PT of € 11 based on DCF.