Q4 revenues came in at NOK 70m, above our estimates (eNuW: NOK 59m), up 27% qoq and more than 3-fold yoy. FY 2022 revenue rose nearly 6-fold yoy and stood at NOK 217m (eNuW: NOK 197m) driven by a steep capacity ramp up and high electricity prices. Accordingly, production capacity rose nearly 2.5-fold yoy to 148 MW and the yearly average electricity price of NOK 1,445/MWh was well above the 10-year historical average of NOK 330/MWh.  

Q4 EBITDA stood at NOK 34m down 62% qoq and below our expectations (eHAIB: NOK 69m). Accordingly, FY 2022 EBITDA missed also our expectations (eHAIB: NOK 187m) coming in at NOK 152m. Nevertheless, this is a remarkable result after negative EBITDA of NOK -32m in 2021.

The miss in EBITDA is mainly due to a drop of net income from associated companies from NOK 74m in Q3 to NOK 21m in Q4,  which can be explained by meteorological and pricing effects. A harsh winter and especially a historically cold December lead to frozen rivers. Additionally, average power prices decreased from NOK 2,460/MWh in Q3 to NOK 1,290/MWh in Q4. Hence revenues produced by the Forte hydro portfolio dropped from NOK 66m in Q3 to NOK 15m in Q4. The decline in revenues from the Odal wind park from NOK 72m to NOK 53m was driven by the beforementioned price effect.

Cloudberry with a transformative acquisition. On Friday, the company announced to have signed a purchase agreement with Skovgaard, a Danish renewable energy developer. Cloudberry will acquire an 80% stake in the Odin wind portfolio, which is already up and running. The transaction is seen to add a net capacity of 106MW to the company's production portfolio, a more than 70% increase. The agreed EV for the 80% stake is around NOK 2,170m, fully funded and to be financed by 50% equity and 50% debt.

Total revenues of the Odin portfolio over the remaining lifetime (roughly 23 years) look set to amount to roughly NOK 5,900m (eNuW). With 50% of the equity investment expected to be repaid through cash flows within the first three years (management estimates), the transaction looks set to be highly attractive. The transaction will be reflected in our estimates following the closing (expected within Q2 2023).

Cloudberry remains an attractive growth story. With the Odin transaction it further diversifies the regional split of its portfolio. The stock remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of NOK 20.00 based on a SOTP.